Model-projected reference tables for the 8-run, 8-station hybrid race: how your 5 km time maps to a finish, where the time actually goes, and which systems move your result the most. Built from the same physiology model as the simulator — and sharpening as athletes log real results.
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1 · Projected finish by 5 km time
A median-strength athlete in the Open division, no station tests — pure effect of running ability. The standard format taxes a fresh km by about 30% on tired legs.
5 km time
Projected finish
Run total
Stations
Transitions
Avg run pace
18:00
1:10:11
36:10
30:17
3:44
4:31
20:00
1:15:46
40:11
31:27
4:08
5:01
22:00
1:21:26
44:12
32:37
4:37
5:31
24:00
1:27:06
48:13
33:47
5:06
6:02
26:00
1:32:46
52:14
34:57
5:35
6:32
28:00
1:38:26
56:15
36:07
6:04
7:02
Model projection, Open division, median strength, no station tests. Real splits by gender, age and division will be published from logged results as the dataset grows.
2 · Where the time goes
A representative ~1:2x finisher (22:00 5 km, Open men). Stations are roughly 40% of the race, runs 54%, transitions 6%.
Station
Work
Projected
Share
SkiErg
1000 m
4:20
5%
Sled Push
50 m
2:35
3%
Sled Pull
50 m
2:55
4%
Burpee Broad Jumps
80 m
5:24
7%
Rowing
1000 m
5:16
6%
Farmers Carry
200 m
2:27
3%
Sandbag Lunges
100 m
4:38
6%
Wall Balls
100 reps
5:02
6%
Runs (8 × 1 km)
44:12
54%
3 · What moves your finish most
The estimated maximum each system can swing your finish, weak vs strong. Running dominates — which is why the runs, not the stations, decide most sub-90 attempts.
Running±6:00
5 km time is by far the biggest lever — it sets your pace for all 8 km.
Lower-body strength±3:00
Sled push/pull and lunges — leg power and breath control.
Engine (row & ski)±2:30
SkiErg + row — sustained power without redlining.
Endurance under fatigue±2:00
Wall balls and holding form when everything hurts.
Grip & carries±1:30
Farmers carry + sled pull — minimise drops.
Honest model estimates derived from the simulator’s sensitivities — not measured against a finisher database (yet).
Help these become real
Every table here is a model projection. The moment athletes start logging real finishes, we can publish actual distributions and percentiles by division, gender and age — and calibrate the model. Raced already? It takes ten seconds.